17 September, 2019
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|GS-II||The reality check|
|How attack on Saudi oil facility could impact Indian and world economics.|
GS-II: The reality check
The satisfaction about the abrogation of Art 370 in the rest of India stems from years of frustration at the failure of our efforts to establish durable peace in Kashmir and the perception that its special status was a mistake.
What the future holds
Three principal arguments have figured in our national discourse:
Lessons from the past
Pakistan’s questioning of J&K’s accession to India will not stop as the issue didn’t start with Art 370.
We took the issue of Pakistan aggression in J&K to the UN, but the power politics of the day turned it into one of the futures of the territory.
In the Simla Agreement, we agreed to hold bilateral negotiations for “a final settlement of Jammu and Kashmir”. We have not renounced this agreement.
Since the late Eighties, when widespread terror and violence broke out in Kashmir, we have talked to Pakistan on this issue for various reasons:
On the return of PoK, we reiterated in every round of dialogue with Pakistan the finality of J&K’s accession.
The remaining issue for discussion is the vacation of its parts under Pakistan’s illegal occupation.
It is thought that our government’s move was aimed at forcing Pakistan’s hand to settle for the existing territorial status quo.
But it is negated by the chorus for the recovery of PoK being our next step.
Its recovery militarily will pit us against China, besides Pakistan, because of its deep interest in the so-called Gilgit-Baltistan, with its entry to the CPEC.
The central government will have direct control over law and order in the Union Territory of J&K.
J&K’s statehood and special status were never serious impediments to operations by security forces against internal turmoil or their deployment for the defence of our external boundaries.
The instrumentality of the Governor’s/President’s rule was available, when necessary.
Problems with the move on 370:
A key asset in a sensitive region is the loyalty of the local populace. The scrapping of the special status will not make much difference to the life of people in the Valley.
The abrupt move, break-up, and downgrading of the state will feed into the already prevailing sense of alienation and religious radicalisation, which Pakistan has been exploiting.
Peace as a prerequisite for the settlement of citizens from the rest of India in J&K and investment by them, faces serious challenges in the Valley and any turmoil there will not leave the Jammu region untouched.
Influencing public opinion requires a massive effort to engage with the people, which has been missing in the last few years.
Mainstream parties are marginalised and actively discredited by the government.
Pakistan’s security establishment finds Kashmir as a means to for its institutional interest of keeping a stranglehold on the country’s polity and has using terrorism to keep the Valley on the boil. These considerations had nothing to do with J&K’s special status and will not disappear with its withdrawal.
Pakistan has opportunistically sought to exploit the Indian move to bring international focus on Kashmir.
Addressing it requires a different set of measures.
Devote our energies to building not only immediate but durable peace in the Valley.
This requires engagement with the people.
Source: Indian Express
GS-III: Nirvik Scheme
To enhance the loan availability of exporters, and the MSME sector the Export Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC) has launched a new scheme called ‘Nirvik’. To revive the export sector, Commerce Ministry also launched the common digital platform for the issuance of certificates of origin.
Electronic Certificates of Origin (CoO)
Source: THE HINDU
GS-III: Clearing the air
The odd-even scheme will make a comeback in Delhi four years after it was first implemented.
The government has nearly two months to iron out glitches and sort out differences that could come in the way of smooth implementation of the plan.
It needs to ensure that the city’s public transport system is able to meet the needs of commuters on days when their vehicles will be off the roads.
The odd-even scheme is not a magic bullet to clean up Delhi’s bad air. But the scheme is a part of a bouquet of pollution-control measures.
Source: Indian Express
GS-III: How attack on Saudi oil facility could impact Indian and world economics.
The Houthis a rebel shia group of Yemen that is backed by iran,bombed the Abqaiq plant as well as the Kurais oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Extent of Supply Shock:
According to IEA an autonomous Paris based organisation with 30 member countries of the OECD as its member and second half of the current calendar year would have seen a decline 0.8mbd because of already stagnating supplies. The latest disruption of an additional 6 mbd is substantial.
Extent of the price stock:
To the extent that the world ha enough inventories to tide over the immediate shortfall and assuming that this attack is not the start of a long streak of international hostilities between US led bloc and an Iran led bloc the price shock could be relatively limited.
However prices will keenly reflect not just the immediate disruption but also the likely disruptions should the US initiate some kind of military response.
Impact of India:
India imports 80% of the oil it consumes which means there are multiple ways in which there multiple ways in which the country will be impacted by this disruptions. India is already trying to make up for the loss of supply from Iran after US imposed sanctions . After Iraq, Saudi Arbia is India’s second largest supplier of crude oil it accounts almost 17% of the country import. Although Saudi Arabia has assured that there will be no loss supply if the process of restoration takes more time than anticipated ,India would have to look for alternatives.
As such rising oil prices will worsen the Indian government fiscal balance. Moreover crude oil prices would also lead to higher domestic oil prices which in turn will further depress the demand of all things especially of those that use oil as the primary input.to the extent that the current crisis is contained the damage would be limited but an escalation.
Source: Indian Express
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