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DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS

  • 23 November, 2019

  • Min Read

GDP slump will hit $5 trillion target, warns NITI Aayog

Syllabus subtopic: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of resources, growth, development and employment.

News: The road to a $5 trillion economy by 2025 is beset with many speed­breakers, the NITI Aayog has warned the government.

Prelims and Mains focus: about the recent economic slowdown and its implications on India’s roadmap for $5 trillion economy by 2025

Background:

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her July 5 Budget presentation, had said the government would work to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2025.

Reasons given by NITI Aayog

  • The Aayog said nominal GDP growtha measure of growth without accounting for inflation —has to be at least 12.4% on average if that target has to be reached, according to a presentation made by its CEO Amitabh Kant at the November 8 meeting of the Standing Committee on Finance, chaired by former Union Minister and BJP MP Jayant Sinha.
  • The current rate was a mere 8% in the first quarter of the current financial year
  • In his presentation, Mr. Kant said “domestic investment and consumption” are the only dependable drivers for sustainable re­acceleration (of the economy). “However, deceleration in investment is visible, primarily in the household sector, due almost entirely to real estate,” he pointed out.

  • The slowdown in the domestic market is also because of limited availability of capital with the banks which are tied down due to high non­performing assets in heavy industry and infrastructure.

The government is expected to release data for the second quarter ( July to September) later this month. Experts estimate that growth will dip in Q2 compared to Q1.

Source: The Hindu


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