×

UPSC Courses

DNA banner

DAILY NEWS ANALYSIS

GS-III :
  • 20 October, 2020

  • 5 Min Read

A tool for thought: On coronavirus pandemic in India

A tool for thought: On coronavirus pandemic in India

Context

  • A committee of experts — well-regarded mathematicians and infectious disease experts — appointed by the Department of Science and Technology to use mathematical modelling and forecast the course of the pandemic has brought good tidings.

Covid19 forecasts by mathematical modelling:

  • By their estimate, India passed its COVID-19 peak in September and the decline in the overall caseload being observed for nearly a month now is to continue.
  • Active cases, about 7.5 lakh now, are expected to drop below 50,000 by December, and by February, the pandemic is likely to extinguish itself with only ‘minimal’ (not zero) infections.
  • The decline will continue only if there are no major mutations during winter, protective antibodies are durable, and current restrictions are maintained.

Pandemic modelling:

  • The purpose of pandemic modelling is to generate a probabilistic overview of the future and mathematical modelling has become a popular, creative exercise, with several models and forecasts.
  • The datasets it has relied on are publicly available and the modelling employs a category of models called SEIR that estimates, within a population, those Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered.
  • It is extremely dependent on the quality of data that is used as an input and relies as much on simplifying assumptions that sacrifice complexity for comprehension but there is nothing to suggest, from what is known about the exercise, that it is more likely to be true than similar estimates from scores of models the world over that subscribe to a certain degree of rigour.

Way ahead:

  • Experts associated with the pandemic have reiterated many times that mathematical modelling ought not to be taken literally.
  • Mathematical models, to be useful, must induce policy or behavioural change to avoid their own worst-case scenarios and this latest assessment must be seen — no more, no less — as a tool to this end.

Source: TH


Anti-Defection Law in India

The Supreme Court of India recently gave a final three-week deadline to the Telangana Assembly Speaker to decide pending disqualification petitions against defecting MLAs under the Anti-Defection Law. What is the Anti-Defection Law? The Anti-Defection Law was introduced through the 52nd Amendment (1985), which added the Tenth Schedule to the

Rat-Hole Mining

A major disaster unfolded in East Jaintia Hills, Meghalaya, when at least 18 workers died following an explosion in an illegally operating rat-hole coal mine. This incident highlights the continued prevalence of rat-hole mining despite bans imposed by the National Green Tribunal (NGT) and the Supreme Court of India. Rat-hole mining is driven

India’s Aviation Sector

India’s aviation sector has grown rapidly, becoming a major economic success story. However, regulatory oversight has not evolved at the same pace. Data-driven monitoring of fares and market behavior is essential to ensure fair competition, prevent market abuse, and shift from reactive crisis management to proactive regulation. Challen

Federalism in India

Recently, a high-level committee on Union–State relations submitted its first report to the Government of Tamil Nadu. The report examines the distribution of powers and responsibilities between the Union and the States, highlighting ongoing debates regarding the balance between central authority and state autonomy. This discussion is clos

India–UAE Economic Partnership

The relationship between India and the United Arab Emirates has evolved from a traditional energy-based partnership into a comprehensive economic and strategic relationship. Over the years, strong political trust, growing trade, and expanding investments have transformed bilateral ties into a diversified economic corridor. The economic partnership

DNA

22 Mar,2026

Toppers

Search By Date

Newsletter Subscription
SMS Alerts

Important Links

UPSC GS Mains Crash Course - RAW