Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The SRS Statistical Report 2023 highlights a landmark demographic shift in India. The national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This indicates that India is moving deeper into a low-fertility phase.

The decline reflects better family planning, late marriages, improved women’s education, lower infant mortality and rising career aspirations among women. However, it also creates long-term challenges such as ageing population and labour shortages in some States.

Key Finding	Details
National TFR	India’s national TFR has declined to 1.9.
Replacement Level	The replacement fertility level is 2.1.
Rural TFR	Rural TFR reached the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time.
Urban TFR	Urban TFR fell further to 1.5.
Regional Gap	Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 2.8, while Delhi at 1.2 and Tamil Nadu show advanced fertility decline.
Education Link	TFR for literate women is 1.8 compared to 3.3 for illiterate women.
Age Factor	Fertility is declining in the 15–29 age group but rising among women aged 30–49.

Reasons and Impacts	Details
Drivers	Effective family planning, late marriages, lower infant mortality and women prioritising careers.
Positive Impact	Promotes a larger economically active population and supports environmental sustainability.
Challenges	May lead to labour shortages and a rapidly ageing population, especially in States like Kerala.
Government Initiatives	Mission Parivar Vikas and Expanded Contraceptive Basket aim to stabilise population growth through a rights-based approach.

PT Facts

Report: SRS Statistical Report 2023.
India’s TFR: 1.9.
Replacement Level: 2.1.
Rural TFR: 2.1; Urban TFR: 1.5.
Education Link: Literate women TFR 1.8; illiterate women TFR 3.3.

Source:

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