India’s Fiscal Outlook

The Ministry of Finance, in its recent Monthly Economic Review, has expressed concern over the fiscal health of several Indian states. The report warns that states with high revenue deficits, rising debt burdens, and heavy interest payment obligations may struggle to cope with future fiscal shocks or economic slowdowns.

Fiscal Position of the Union Government

Central Government’s Fiscal Resilience

The Union Government has maintained a relatively cautious and disciplined fiscal strategy. According to the review, the Centre’s fiscal framework is supported by:

• Conservative tax buoyancy assumptions

• Controlled expenditure management

• Creation of the Economic Stabilisation Fund

The report notes that the government has assumed a tax buoyancy of around 0.8, reflecting a cautious estimate of revenue growth relative to economic growth.

A major institutional safeguard is the newly established Economic Stabilisation Fund, which is intended to act as a financial buffer during periods of global uncertainty, economic downturns, or external shocks. This mechanism is expected to help the Centre maintain fiscal deficit targets without major disruptions.

Fiscal Stress Among States

Revenue Deficit Concerns

The report highlights that out of 18 major Indian states, 9 states are currently facing revenue deficits. A revenue deficit occurs when a government’s revenue expenditure exceeds its revenue receipts, indicating that the state is borrowing even for routine administrative and operational expenses.

The most stressed states include:

• Himachal Pradesh with a revenue deficit of -2.4%

• Punjab at -2.2%

• Kerala at -2.1%

• Andhra Pradesh at -1.1%

• Rajasthan at -1.1%

• Haryana at -0.9%

• Karnataka at -0.7%

• Maharashtra at -0.7%

• Chhattisgarh at -0.3%

Rising Interest Payment Burden

Debt Servicing Pressure

States with large debt stocks are forced to spend a substantial portion of their revenue earnings on debt servicing instead of developmental expenditure.

Among all states, Punjab faces the highest fiscal stress, with nearly 22.8% of its revenue receipts being used solely for interest payments.

Fiscal Deficit Trends Among States

States Crossing the 3% Fiscal Deficit Limit

The review notes that 13 states have budgeted fiscal deficits at or above 3% of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP).

Under the broader framework of fiscal responsibility, states are generally expected to keep fiscal deficits within manageable levels to maintain long-term debt sustainability.

However, the report also clarifies that not all fiscal deficits necessarily indicate financial distress.

For example, Odisha has projected:

• A fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GSDP

• A revenue surplus of 3%

This indicates that Odisha’s borrowing is largely directed toward capital expenditure and infrastructure investment, rather than routine consumption spending. The state has planned capital outlays amounting to 6.5% of GSDP, which is viewed as productive investment rather than fiscal weakness.

States with Revenue Surplus

Better Performing States

The review identifies several states that are expected to maintain revenue surpluses, meaning their revenue receipts exceed revenue expenditure.

The leading states include:

• Odisha with a surplus of 3%

• Jharkhand at 2.5%

• Uttar Pradesh at 1.6%

• Goa at 1.3%

• Gujarat at 0.8%

• Uttarakhand at 0.6%

• Telangana at 0.3%

• Bihar at 0.1%

Revenue surplus positions indicate relatively stronger fiscal discipline and greater ability to finance developmental activities sustainably.

Impact of the 16th Finance Commission

The financial year 2026–27 marks the beginning of the award period of the 16th Finance Commission.

The Ministry has cautioned that changes introduced under the new Finance Commission framework may create uncertainty for several states. Key concerns include:

• Changes in tax devolution shares

• Possible reduction in central transfers

• Absence of Revenue Deficit Grants for some states

States heavily dependent on central assistance may therefore face additional fiscal stress.

Rising Debt Risks

The report notes that aggregate liabilities of several states have reached between 35% and 45% of GSDP, raising concerns about debt sustainability.

Highly indebted states may increasingly demand:

• Larger central transfers

• Relaxation in borrowing limits

• Additional fiscal support

This could complicate the Union Government’s own fiscal consolidation efforts and create broader macroeconomic risks.

Concerns Associated with India’s Fiscal Outlook

India’s fiscal outlook is currently facing several challenges at both the Union Government and State Government levels. Rising inflation, slowing economic growth, increasing subsidy burdens, and mounting public debt have created concerns regarding fiscal stability and long-term economic sustainability.

Union Government’s Fiscal Concerns

Breach of Fiscal Deficit Target

The Union Budget for FY 2026–27 projected a fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP. However, some research agencies, such as BMI, have warned that the actual fiscal deficit may rise to 4.5% because of increased emergency spending and additional government expenditure.

A higher fiscal deficit means that the government will need to borrow more money, which can increase the debt burden and interest payment obligations in the future.

Pressure on GDP Growth

The Union government had initially estimated India’s real GDP growth at around 7–7.4% for FY 2026–27. However, global uncertainties and domestic inflationary pressures are likely to slow economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth at around 6.5%, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to remain around 4.7%.

Rising Energy and Subsidy Burden

India is heavily dependent on imported crude oil. With the Indian crude basket remaining around USD 113–115 per barrel, the government faces significantly higher import costs.

To protect consumers from rising prices, the Centre may be forced to increase:

• Petroleum subsidies

• Fertilizer subsidies

• Other welfare support measures

Cost-Push Inflation and Demand Compression

Global disruptions in important shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz have increased freight and insurance costs. As a result, wholesale inflation has increased to nearly 3.88%.

Businesses often transfer these increased production and transportation costs to consumers through higher prices. This situation leads to cost-push inflation.

Higher prices reduce consumer purchasing power and lead to demand compression, meaning consumers spend less on non-essential goods and services. Reduced demand can slow economic activity and weaken revenue generation for the government.

State Governments’ Fiscal Concerns

Revenue Volatility

State governments depend heavily on revenues from:

• State GST (SGST)

• VAT on petroleum products

• Other indirect taxes

With global crude oil prices rising sharply and Brent crude exceeding USD 120 per barrel, states often face pressure to reduce VAT rates on fuel in order to provide relief to citizens.

However, reducing VAT rates lowers state revenues. At the same time, inflation reduces consumer spending on non-essential goods, which slows the growth of SGST collections.

Breaching the “Golden Rule” of Fiscal Financing

One of the most important concerns is that many states are violating the Golden Rule of Fiscal Financing.

The golden rule states that governments should borrow money only for:

• Capital expenditure, such as roads, railways, irrigation projects, and infrastructure

and not for:

• Salaries

• Subsidies

• Administrative expenses

• Day-to-day government spending

However, several states such as Punjab, Kerala, and Himachal Pradesh are running revenue deficits, which means they are borrowing money to meet regular expenditure instead of creating productive assets.

Bailout Pressures on the Centre

Financially stressed states with high debt and limited fiscal flexibility may increasingly demand:

• Higher central transfers

• Relaxation in borrowing limits

• Debt relief packages

• Additional financial assistance

This creates extra pressure on the Union government at a time when it is already attempting fiscal consolidation and deficit reduction.

Golden Rule of Fiscal Financing

Meaning of the Golden Rule

The Golden Rule of Fiscal Financing is an important principle of public finance. It states that governments should borrow only for long-term investment and not for current or recurring expenditure.

In simple terms, routine government expenses should be financed through current revenues, while borrowing should be used only for projects that create long-term economic benefits.

The principle ensures that future generations repay debt only for assets and infrastructure from which they also benefit.

Importance of the Golden Rule

Intergenerational Equity

Borrowing for present-day consumption places an unfair burden on future generations. For example, borrowing money to pay salaries or subsidies benefits only the current population, while future taxpayers must repay the debt.

In contrast, borrowing for infrastructure projects such as highways, bridges, and power plants is considered fair because future generations also benefit from these assets.

Economic Growth

Investment in infrastructure and capital projects has a strong multiplier effect on the economy. It creates employment opportunities, improves productivity, encourages private investment, and supports long-term economic growth.

Higher growth eventually increases government revenues, making debt repayment easier and more sustainable.

Fiscal Discipline

The golden rule encourages governments to maintain fiscal discipline and prevents excessive borrowing for short-term populist measures or temporary welfare schemes.

It helps reduce the risks of:

• Unsustainable debt

• Fiscal instability

• Inflationary pressures

• Financial crises

Revenue Deficit

A revenue deficit occurs when a government’s revenue expenditure becomes higher than its revenue receipts. In simple terms, it means that the government is spending more money on its regular day-to-day activities than it is earning through taxes, fees, and other routine sources of income.

Revenue expenditure includes expenses such as salaries, pensions, subsidies, interest payments, and administrative costs. When these expenditures exceed the government’s regular income, the government is forced to borrow money even to meet routine expenses.

Revenue Surplus

A revenue surplus arises when a government’s revenue receipts are greater than its revenue expenditure. This indicates that the government is financially capable of meeting its day-to-day expenditure from its own income sources without relying on borrowing.

In a situation of revenue surplus, the government can use borrowed funds primarily for capital expenditure such as infrastructure development, roads, railways, irrigation projects, and other long-term investments.

Revenue surplus is often seen as a sign of sound fiscal management because it improves fiscal sustainability and reduces dependence on debt for routine expenditure.

Fiscal Stress

Fiscal stress refers to a situation where there is a mismatch between a government’s revenues and expenditures. It occurs when the government’s income is insufficient to meet its spending requirements, forcing it to either cut expenditure, increase taxes, or borrow additional funds.

Fiscal stress may be temporary during periods of economic crisis or persistent due to structural weaknesses in the economy and public finance system. Prolonged fiscal stress weakens the financial position of governments and limits their ability to support economic growth and social welfare.

Causes of Fiscal Stress

One of the major causes of fiscal stress is the presence of structural weaknesses in the taxation system. A narrow tax base, uneven GST collections, and excessive dependence on indirect taxes reduce the ability of governments to generate stable and sufficient revenues.

At the same time, governments face increasing expenditure commitments in the form of food subsidies, fertilizer subsidies, fuel subsidies, welfare schemes, and social security programmes. Rising expenditure without adequate revenue growth creates fiscal imbalances.

Another important reason is the growing debt burden. Governments that borrow heavily must allocate a large portion of their revenues towards repayment of loans and interest payments. This reduces the amount available for development activities such as infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

Economic shocks also contribute significantly to fiscal stress. Events such as the Covid-19 pandemic, global commodity price fluctuations, oil price shocks, and climate-related disasters increase government expenditure while simultaneously reducing revenue collection.

In addition, weak tax compliance, tax evasion, and poor enforcement mechanisms further reduce government revenues. Delays and underperformance in capital expenditure projects also decrease the efficiency of public spending.

Impacts of Fiscal Stress

Fiscal stress has several serious economic and social consequences.

One major impact is the rise in the public debt burden. As governments continue to borrow to bridge fiscal gaps, total debt levels increase. Higher debt leads to larger interest payment obligations, which further reduce fiscal flexibility. Excessive debt may also result in lower credit ratings and increased borrowing costs.

Fiscal stress also reduces the government’s fiscal space, meaning its ability to spend freely on important sectors becomes limited. A larger share of government revenue gets diverted towards debt servicing and subsidies, leaving fewer resources for investment in infrastructure and public services.

Another important consequence is macroeconomic instability. Heavy government borrowing can push up interest rates in the economy. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses and individuals, thereby discouraging private investment and slowing economic growth.

Fiscal stress also weakens social and developmental outcomes. Governments facing financial pressure may reduce spending on healthcare, education, welfare programmes, and rural development. This can increase poverty and regional inequalities.

An additional concern is the inter-generational burden created by excessive borrowing. When governments borrow heavily for current consumption rather than productive investment, future generations are forced to repay the debt without receiving corresponding long-term benefits. This raises concerns about long-term debt sustainability and economic stability.

Steps Needed to Strengthen India’s Fiscal Outlook

India’s fiscal outlook can be strengthened only through a balanced approach that combines fiscal discipline, economic growth, energy security, and efficient public spending. Both the Union Government and the State Governments have an important role in ensuring long-term fiscal stability and sustainable development.

Strategies for the Union Government

Aggressive Energy Diplomacy

One of the major concerns for India’s fiscal stability is its heavy dependence on imported crude oil and natural gas. Rising global energy prices increase the country’s import bill and put pressure on subsidies and inflation. To reduce this burden, India should focus on Government-to-Government (G2G) energy partnerships with countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Guyana.

Such agreements can help India obtain energy supplies at stable and affordable prices, thereby reducing the risk premium associated with global geopolitical tensions. Lower import costs would improve the trade balance, reduce subsidy pressures, and protect the fiscal position of the Union Government.

Prioritisation of Capital Expenditure (Capex)

The government must continue to prioritize capital expenditure (Capex) because it has a strong multiplier effect on the economy. Investment in sectors such as Green Hydrogen, Semiconductors, Renewable Energy, Railways, and Infrastructure creates jobs, boosts industrial growth, and improves long-term productivity.

Protecting capital expenditure is essential for maintaining India’s target of achieving around 7% economic growth. Unlike revenue expenditure, productive Capex generates future economic returns and strengthens fiscal sustainability over time.

Monetary–Fiscal Coordination

Effective coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is necessary to maintain macroeconomic stability. A stable Indian Rupee is important because depreciation increases the cost of imports, government borrowing, and external debt servicing.

Through coordinated monetary and fiscal policies, the government can control imported inflation, maintain investor confidence, and ensure stable economic growth. This coordination also helps in managing interest rates and preventing excessive inflationary pressures.

Strategies for State Governments

Diversification of Revenue Sources

Many states depend heavily on VAT collections from petroleum products, making their revenues highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. To reduce this dependence, states should diversify their revenue sources.

Improving collections from State Excise Duties, Property Taxes, and Stamp Duties through digitization and better compliance mechanisms can create a more stable and predictable revenue base. Stronger tax administration will also reduce leakages and improve fiscal resilience.

Adoption of Green Energy Mandates

States should actively promote Electric Vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, and decentralized solar systems such as solar-powered irrigation pumps. Transitioning toward green energy reduces dependence on fossil fuels and lowers fuel subsidy burdens over time.

This shift will not only improve fiscal sustainability but also contribute to India’s climate commitments and energy security. Reduced fuel imports can help both the Centre and states manage fiscal stress more effectively.

Prudent Debt Management

States must strictly adhere to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) targets, especially the limit of keeping fiscal deficits within 3% of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP).

Borrowing should be focused on productive investments such as infrastructure, irrigation, healthcare, and education rather than financing routine expenditure like salaries or subsidies. This approach follows the “Golden Rule of Fiscal Financing”, which states that governments should borrow only for capital creation and not for day-to-day consumption.

Reducing off-budget borrowings and improving debt transparency are also essential to avoid future debt crises.

Incentivising Performance-Based Governance

The 16th Finance Commission has introduced performance-based grants, where states receive incentives based on reforms and administrative efficiency. States should therefore focus on improving governance standards, digitizing tax systems, and implementing property tax reforms.

Better administrative efficiency and accountability will help states unlock additional central funds and strengthen their fiscal position.

Conclusion

India’s fiscal outlook faces challenges from rising energy costs, inflationary pressures, slowing global growth, and increasing state-level debt burdens. While the Union Government has created buffers such as the Economic Stabilisation Fund, long-term fiscal stability will depend on disciplined financial management by both the Centre and the States.