Down, but not out: On Islamic State

Down, but not out: On Islamic State

Context

• Political instability in parts of West Asia and North Africa is allowing the IS space to operate.
• The U.N. counterterrorism chief’s statement to the Security Council on the continuing presence of Islamic State (IS) terrorists in West Asia, Africa and elsewhere should be seen as a serious warning by the countries in these regions.

News:

• Two years after the Sunni jihadist group was declared defeated, more than 10,000 IS fighters remain active in Iraq and Syria.
• IS-driven terror attacks are on the rise.
• Besides these two countries, where the IS had established a proto-state in 2014 — destroyed by multilateral war efforts that lasted four years — the terror outfit has a “province” in West Africa with nearly 3,000 fighters, according to the UN.
• In war-torn Afghanistan, it continues to stage attacks, targeting ethnic and religious minorities.
• The IS may no longer control any big city, but its rise from a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda in Iraq to one of the world’s most potent terrorist groups should be a lesson for all stakeholders.
• Ever since they lost territories, IS fighters withdrew from the front lines and started operating in cells in the deserts, mountains and hinterlands of conflict-ridden countries.

Syria:

• Iraq and Syria are particularly vulnerable to the IS’s resurgence as these countries are yet to be fully stabilised after the wars.
• In Syria, the Bashar al-Assad government has practically won the civil war.
• But Syria is now a divided country.
• While the government controls most of the territories, a coalition of jihadists and rebels is running the Idlib province.
• In the northeast, the Kurdish rebels have declared autonomy.
• On the Syrian-Turkish border, Turkey, backed by pro-Turkish rebels, has carved out a buffer and has been in permanent conflict with the Kurds.
• Though there is an uneasy quiet in Syria, the situation is inflammable.

Iraq:

• Iraq, after months of protests and instability, has finally got a government.
• But Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is torn between the U.S. and Iran.
• Pro-Iran Shia militias continue to target U.S. troops inside Iraq, which could turn the country into a battlefield between Washington and Tehran.

Libya:

• The story is not very different in Africa.
• Libya has two governments, which were fighting each other till last week’s ceasefire.
• The Libyan conflict has spilled over into Mali and Burkina Faso, where jihadists have established a solid presence.
• Chaos breeds militancy, and as the main group here is the IS, it would remain active as long as these countries remain unstable.

Conclusion:

• The IS has its roots in the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
• It started growing by exploiting the civil war in Syria. The regional governments as well as their international backers (and rivals) should be mindful of this fact.
• If they fail to address the regional fault-lines and continue to fight each other, the jihadists could emerge winners once again.