Political Unrest in Nepal

Nepal’s ongoing political unrest, exacerbated by Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s resignation and youth-led protests, has created a volatile environment that directly impacts India’s national security, economic interests, and regional influence. The unrest stems from deep-rooted issues such as corruption, unemployment, inequalities, and restrictions on social media, which have escalated into a full-blown crisis. Police firing in Kathmandu and subsequent casualties have added fuel to the fire, deepening grievances and creating further instability.

Historical and Cultural Ties Between India and Nepal

The relationship between India and Nepal is deeply rooted in history, culture, and shared religious ties.

1. Epic Ties: The Ramayana connects Lord Rama from Ayodhya (India) and Sita from Janakpur (Nepal), signifying cultural and religious ties between the two nations.

2. Ancient Republics: The Magadh and Shakya republics spanned both the Indian and Nepali borders, with Prince Siddhartha (Buddha) being born in Lumbini (Nepal) and attaining Nirvana at Bodh Gaya (India).

3. Shared Struggles: K.P. Bhattarai, born in Varanasi, was a key figure in Nepal's struggle against the Rana regime and participated in India's Quit India Movement.

4. Military Ties: The Treaty of Sugauli (1816) allowed for the recruitment of Nepali Gurkhas into the British Indian Army, cementing military ties.

5. Treaty of Peace and Friendship (1950): This treaty allowed for open movement, trade, and mutual economic participation between the two nations.

Despite these strong historical and cultural links, Nepal’s current political instability has significant implications for India’s national security, economic interests, and regional influence.

Impact of Nepal’s Political Crisis on India

1. Security Concerns

Nepal’s political instability presents immediate security threats to India:

• Cross-Border Threats: Political unrest can create a vacuum in governance, which may be exploited by insurgent groups or criminal networks, leading to an increase in smuggling, trafficking, and even militant infiltration along the open India-Nepal border.

• Increased Instability: The absence of strong governance in Nepal allows external actors, like China, to further entrench their influence in the region.

2. Economic Impact

Nepal’s instability has economic ramifications for both countries:

• Trade Disruptions: India is Nepal’s key trading partner, with a trade surplus of around USD 7.32 billion in exports to Nepal. Political instability threatens to disrupt supply chains and Indian investments in Nepal.

• Opportunity for China: Instability in Nepal may create space for China to expand its influence, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

3. Development Cooperation Setbacks

• India has funded over 573 High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) across Nepal, focusing on health, education, and sanitation. Instability may halt these crucial projects and allow China’s influence to rise, especially with the BRI projects in Nepal.

4. Energy Cooperation Disruptions

• Nepal is critical to India’s energy strategy for regional integration. The ongoing hydropower projects like Arun-3 and Phukot Karnali are vital for cross-border energy trade, but political turmoil in Nepal could delay or derail these projects, affecting India’s goal of becoming a regional energy hub.

5. Defence and Security Cooperation

• India and Nepal share a strong military relationship, including regular joint exercises like Surya Kiran. However, political instability risks disrupting these exchanges and may open the door for China to influence Nepal’s security policies.

Consequences of Regional Unrest for India

The political turmoil in Nepal is part of a larger pattern of instability across South Asia, which poses broader implications for India:

1. Internal Security Threats

• Cross-border terrorism: Pakistan continues to fuel tensions over Jammu and Kashmir, supporting terrorism and insurgency. The porous borders in the Northeast (Myanmar and Bangladesh) also facilitate illegal activities like arms smuggling and insurgent movements.

2. Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

• China’s Growing Influence: Instability in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh provides China an opportunity to strengthen its presence through the BRI and militarization of the Indian Ocean (e.g., Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka).

• Regional Power Vacuum: Instability creates a vacuum that major powers, especially China and the U.S., seek to exploit. This undermines India’s strategic position in the region.

3. Economic and Developmental Setbacks

• Political instability delays key projects under the Act East Policy, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. This disrupts India's efforts to become a regional economic hub and to implement infrastructure projects.

• The Teesta River dispute with Bangladesh, aggravated by political turmoil, impacts agriculture and energy security in the region.

4. Refugee and Humanitarian Crisis

• Refugee inflows from countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh create socio-cultural tensions within India, especially in border states like Assam. These inflows strain local infrastructure and fuel identity-based tensions, as seen in the NRC and CAA debates.

5. Erosion of India's Influence in Multilateral Forums

• Instability weakens regional institutions like SAARC and BIMSTEC, preventing India from building consensus or driving cooperative initiatives. This opens the door for extra-regional powers, like China, to shape the regional agenda.

Measures India Can Adopt to Enhance Engagement in the Neighborhood

To mitigate the impact of political instability in Nepal and the wider region, India should focus on several strategies:

1. Strengthening Border and Cross-Border Management

• Modernize border infrastructure, such as integrated check posts and digital customs systems, to minimize disruptions and security risks. This will ensure smooth trade and enhance border security.

2. Comprehensive Security and Defence Cooperation

• Crisis management frameworks through SAARC and BIMSTEC should be established to respond effectively to political crises, natural disasters, and security threats.

• Expand joint military exercises with countries like Nepal, Myanmar, and Maldives to maintain security cooperation and safeguard maritime interests in the Indian Ocean.

3. Strengthening Regional Connectivity and Infrastructure

• Accelerate the completion of key infrastructure projects like the BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement and Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project. These initiatives will improve connectivity and trade in the region.

• India must adopt a whole-of-government approach to ensure the fast-tracking of developmental projects in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and other neighboring countries.

4. Economic and Connectivity-Driven Diplomacy

• India should offer an alternative to China's debt trap diplomacy, focusing on soft loans, grants, and development assistance tailored to individual countries' needs.

• Incentivize economic cooperation by expanding trade routes and markets, helping neighboring countries improve their economies without becoming overly dependent on China.

5. Leveraging Soft Power

• Expand people-to-people ties through programs like Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC), which offers training, scholarships, and technical assistance to professionals from neighboring countries. This strengthens India's soft power and cultural diplomacy.

Conclusion

The political crisis in Nepal underscores the broader instability in India’s neighborhood, with significant implications for security, economic development, and regional cooperation. India must adopt a proactive strategy to manage its relationships in South Asia, combining robust diplomacy, strategic security cooperation, economic assistance, and cultural outreach to preserve its regional influence and ensure regional stability.