Bharat Forecast System

The Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS) is an advanced, indigenous weather forecasting system developed to significantly improve weather predictions across India. It aims to provide high-resolution forecasts, especially useful for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

Key Features of Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS)

1. Indigenous Development: BharatFS has been developed in India, utilizing cutting-edge technology and local expertise.

2. Triangular Cubic Octahedral (TCo) Dynamical Grid: The system uses the TCo grid, which enables it to operate at a 6 km horizontal resolution, significantly surpassing previous models like the GFS T1534, which had a 12 km resolution. This enhanced resolution allows for much more detailed and accurate forecasts.

3. Supercomputing Support: The model runs on supercomputing facilities:

   • Arka at IITM-Pune

   • Arunika at NCMRWF-Noida
     These supercomputers enable real-time weather predictions.

4. Improved Accuracy: The BharatFS model has demonstrated:

   • A 30% better accuracy in forecasting extreme rainfall events, particularly in the core monsoon region.

   • Enhanced skill in predicting rainfall and weather patterns, allowing for localized forecasts down to the level of individual panchayats or villages.

5. Forecasting Extremes: It is specifically designed to predict extreme weather events more accurately, which is crucial for preparing for floods, cyclones, and other climate-related disasters.

Objectives and Impact of BharatFS

1. Localized Weather Forecasts:

   • BharatFS can generate distinct forecasts every 6 km, allowing for much more localized and precise predictions.

   • This is especially valuable for agriculture, as it helps farmers with crop planning, irrigation, and harvesting schedules based on weather conditions specific to their areas.

2. Supporting Rural Communities:

   • By focusing on localized forecasts, the system can cater to smaller administrative units like clusters of panchayats. This provides more relevant and actionable weather information for rural communities, particularly in managing agricultural risks and resources.

3. Disaster Management:

   • BharatFS plays a crucial role in better forecasting extreme weather events like heavy rains and flooding, which can aid disaster preparedness.

   • Water authorities can manage reservoirs and flood risk more efficiently, helping to reduce potential damage during heavy monsoons.

4. Support for Neighboring Countries:

   • BharatFS positions India as a regional leader in meteorology, with the capability to assist neighboring countries with improved weather predictions and climate management.

Significance of BharatFS

1. Improved Weather Prediction:

   • BharatFS has already demonstrated significant improvements in forecasting extreme rainfall and weather events, which can reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate-related disasters.

2. Support for Farmers:

   • With localized, accurate forecasts, farmers can plan irrigation, crop management, and harvesting in a more informed and timely manner, boosting crop yield resilience against adverse weather conditions.

3. Enhancing Self-Reliance:

   • BharatFS reflects India's growing technological self-reliance and capability to independently develop sophisticated forecasting systems, reinforcing regional leadership in meteorology.

Conclusion

The Bharat Forecast System marks a significant leap forward in India’s meteorological capabilities. By providing localized, high-resolution weather forecasts, it helps farmers, water authorities, and disaster management teams make informed decisions. With its ability to forecast extreme weather events more accurately, BharatFS is not only improving climate resilience within India but also positioning India as a leader in weather prediction in the region.