Recently, Russia officially declared that it no longer considers itself bound by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

About the INF Treaty

The INF Treaty was a pivotal arms control agreement signed between the United States and the Soviet Union (now Russia) in 1987. The agreement aimed to address the growing concerns of nuclear proliferation in Europe and the escalating arms race during the Cold War.

Objective

The treaty was designed to de-escalate the nuclear arms race by targeting and eliminating two categories of nuclear missiles:

1. Ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.

2. Elimination of entire classes of weapons in the European theatre, where both the U.S. and the USSR had significant missile deployments.

Both parties agreed to destroy these missile systems, helping to reduce the threat of nuclear conflict in Europe.

Key Provisions

• Missile Destruction: The treaty led to the elimination of 2,619 missiles over a period of three years.

• Verification: Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union (later Russia) allowed mutual inspections and verification by observers to ensure compliance.

• Security: It was a measure to prevent the escalation of a dangerous nuclear arms race, particularly in Europe, where both powers had substantial missile arsenals.

The treaty came about through years of diplomatic negotiations during the leadership of U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, and was seen as a breakthrough in the global effort to curb nuclear proliferation.

Present Status of the INF Treaty

In recent years, the treaty has been under strain:

• U.S. Withdrawal: The United States formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, citing violations by Russia, specifically the development and deployment of new missile systems that allegedly violated the treaty’s terms.

• Russia’s Stance: Following the U.S. withdrawal, Russia has declared that it will no longer adhere to the treaty’s terms, thereby ending its commitments under the agreement.

• This means that both powers are now free to develop and deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles, further heightening tensions in global security.

Implications of the Treaty’s Breakdown

• Increased Nuclear Proliferation Risks: The dissolution of the INF Treaty may spark a new arms race, especially in Europe and Asia, as both the U.S. and Russia are now likely to develop and deploy new nuclear-capable missiles in these regions.

• Global Security Concerns: The treaty's collapse also raises concerns about the future of arms control agreements, as other nuclear powers might reconsider or withdraw from similar treaties, undermining global non-proliferation efforts.

• Geopolitical Tensions: With both countries now free to pursue new missile systems, countries like China and North Korea may also seek to advance their own missile programs, further complicating global security dynamics.

GS-II: Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

Context

The U.S has withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

What’s the issue?

US in early December last year announced that it would suspend its obligations under the INF treaty by Feb. 2, citing Russian “cheating,” unless Moscow comes into compliance with the terms of the pact.

The U.S. government says the new Russian missile violates provisions of the pact that ban production, testing and deployment of land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 310 to 3,400 miles.

What would happen in the absence of treaty?

It is unclear what INF-prohibited systems the United States could deploy to Europe or Asia in the near term. The U.S. military has not developed any land-based missiles within the prohibited ranges for decades and has only just started funding a new ground-launched cruise missile to match the 9M729.

Russia could also effectively reclassify the RS-26 Rubezh, an experimental system that has been tested just above the INF Treaty’s 5,500-kilometer limit. To avoid violating the INF, Russian officials previously described the RS-26 as an intercontinental ballistic missile. However, it could form the basis for a missile of a slightly shorter range if Moscow wished to boost its INF forces — without counting it under the U.S.-Russian New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, governing longer-range systems.

This move is also likely to undermine the 2010 New START treaty governing U.S. and Russian long-range nuclear systems. The INF Treaty’s demise will undercut New START by reopening questions on the relationship between intermediate and strategic systems that have been resolved for 30 years by the elimination of ground-based, intermediate-range missiles.

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty:

The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty, formally Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles) is a 1987 arms control agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Under the INF Treaty, the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. agreed to eliminate within three years all ground-launched-missiles of 500-5,500 km range and not to develop, produce or deploy these in future.

Importance of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in U.S.-Russia relations:

Under the Treaty, the two parties agreed that a whole important class of nuclear weapons would be removed from Europe, and only tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) or short-range missiles mostly deployed on the territory of Germany would remain.

The INF Treaty for years served to mitigate fears of both parties in relation to the possibility of military escalation, and operational miscalculation, and helped to shift the logic of MAD mutually assured destruction] to the higher “more sensitive” political level.