Troubled waters: on EU-Turkey relations

Troubled waters: on EU-Turkey relations

Context

• Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean soared last week, with Turkey sending an exploration vessel, accompanied by a Navy fleet, to the disputed waters and France despatching warships to assist Greece.

The trigger

• The trigger for the recent hostility between Turkey and Greece, which have historically shared troublesome relations, has been the discovery of gas in the Mediterranean waters.
• The EU’s plans to transport the gas to its mainland, which would help reduce its dependency on Russia, have raised the region’s geopolitical profile.
• Turkey and Greece have overlapping maritime claims.
• But when EU members and its allies in West Asia and North Africa made plans to build a gas pipeline from the Mediterranean to Europe’s mainland, they kept Turkey out of it, which infuriated Ankara.
• Earlier this year, the EastMed Gas Forum was formed by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and Palestine, and Turkey was again excluded.
• But Turkey challenged the pipeline project and reached an agreement with Libya’s Tripoli-based government, which Ankara is backing, to form an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) from its southern shores to Libya’s northern coast across the Mediterranean.

Clash of the EEZ

• Greece claimed the Turkish zone violated its maritime sovereignty. Later, Greece announced its EEZ with Egypt, which clashes with Turkey’s zone.
• Immediately thereafter, Turkey sent its survey ship over.
• The highly complicated issue now has the potential to involve Europe, West Asia and North Africa.
• It is difficult to demarcate the maritime boundaries in the eastern Mediterranean, which is dotted with Turkish and Greek islands.
• Cyprus is physically divided with the southern part ruled by the internationally-recognised government and the northern part controlled by Turkey.
• Turkey’s survey ship plans exploration activities around Greece’s Crete Island, which lies just outside the Turkish-Libya economic zone, and Greece and Cyprus call it a violation of their sovereignty.

Isolated Turkey

• France, the EU’s most powerful military force, has thrown its weight behind Greece and Cyprus.
• Now, an alliance is emerging among Greece, Cyprus, Italy and France, which is backed by Egypt, Israel and the UAE.
• Turkey stands almost isolated, but remains a key power in the Mediterranean, which requires the EU to tread cautiously.

Conclusion

• If the EU wants to transport gas from the coast of Israel to Europe via Cyprus and Italy, an open conflict with Turkey cannot help.
• What is in everybody’s interest is to dial down tensions and find a diplomatic and mutually acceptable solution to the gas contest.
• Excluding Turkey, which has a long Mediterranean coast, is unwise. Allowing a resurgent Turkey to bully smaller powers in the region would be strategically disastrous.
• The EU has to strike a balance between these two options.