05 December, 2019
News: The government is facing a double whammy. The sharp deceleration in economic growth in nominal terms has shredded its fiscal math, and at the same time, the Centre cannot excuse itself from more spending.
Prelims and Mains focus: on the recent economic slowdown, its implications and ways to address them.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7% in nominal terms for the first half of FY20 and economists are worried the full-year figure may not touch even 10%.
Recall that the government had assumed a 12% GDP growth in its budget in February.
In FY19, the nominal growth was 12.3% in the first half and 11.2% for the full year.
A slowing economy by extension will lead to lower growth in tax revenues. After all, as earnings reduce, so does the potential to tax. Gross tax collections are falling for the first time in a decade and analysts expect them to miss the budget target by a mile.
Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd estimates that taxes will fall short of the target by ? 3.1 trillion. “Indeed, with early indicators even weaker in Oct-Nov, the challenges may well exacerbate,” the brokerage firm said in a note dated 30 November.
Meanwhile, the government has exhausted its options to fill a widening hole. It has tapped the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for extra dividends, held over several states’ share in revenue and delayed payments to several agencies, prized companies could fetch a large chunk. The government is also trying to hawk its land.
Even so, analysts believe that fiscal deficit would slip to 3.8-4% as against the budgeted 3.4% of GDP. Therefore, the government will have to borrow more from the market to plug the widening deficit.
Bond markets are pricing in extra borrowing. It is only the surplus liquidity which is keeping yields under check.
The yield on the 10-year government bond has eased 86 basis points ever since RBI began its rate-cutting cycle in February. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The drop seems less when seen in the light of a large surplus liquidity and a cumulative policy rate cut of 135 basis points.
This indicates that bond markets have not been able to embrace the fall in policy rates given the concerns over the fiscal deficit.
Beyond the impact on market rates, the government and its agencies are already crowding out the private sector. With total public sector borrowing estimated at 9% of GDP, it leaves precious little of the savings in the economy for the private sector.
An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events in India by CSE According to a recent report by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), India will experience some form of natural disaster almost every day in the first nine months of 2022. Between January 1 and September 30, 2022, India recorded 241 extreme weather events. About the evalu
India and Norway in the Green Maritime Sector The 8th Norway-India Joint Working Group Maritime meeting was recently held in Mumbai. Indo-Norway collaboration in the GREEN MARITIME Sector The history of maritime trade with Norway dates back to 1600. Norway has technical expertise in the maritime sector, and India has enormous potentia
Arittapatti Village: Biodiversity Heritage Site In accordance with Section 37 of the Biodiversity Diversity Act, 2002, the Government of Tamil Nadu published a notification designating Arittapatti Village in Melur in the Madurai district as a biodiversity heritage site. The Biodiversity Heritage site is the first site to be nominated
Food-Animal Farming and Antimicrobial Resistance Animal health issues in factory farming have a severe impact on food safety, the environment, and the climate, which can result in antibiotic resistance (AMR). Farming of pigs, cows, and birds in close quarters is known as factory farming or intensive food-animal farming. These are industr
Report On Amazon Rainforest Recent research from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) titled "Living Amazon Report" 2022 claims that 35% of the rainforest has either completely disappeared or is severely degraded. The study was presented at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 27th Conference of Parties (COP27)
Copyright© Aspire IAS Academy. All rights reserved. Powered by CLT Technologies & Edu-Publishers Private Limited.